Musing about Google I/O 2012

There are a lot of guesses what lies ahead for Google I/O 2012, so I thought I'd toss my two cents into the mix. I love the speculation, and I like to try and guess what's coming down the pipes a little in advance, just in case I get something right. I also see it as a good point to throw out totally unfounded predictions, because I think the obvious rumors are set in stone at this point.

Just to get them out of the way, the biggest rumors getting thrown around include the Nexus 7 tablet produced by Asus and distributed by Google for $200 or less, and an Android 4.1: Jelly Bean release - but seriously what's the fun in regurgitating "obvious" rumors? There are a couple other rumors that are a little vaguer or seemingly less significant, like another push for Google TV, release of some Google+ APIs. I'll start off from there, and journey from the reasonable speculations to the crazier ideas as I write.

Google Drive Living Documents

One thing I was a little surprised about with the Google Drive push was a lack of integration across documents and other Google services. Seeing how Google's services have been getting standardized over the last few months is definitely exciting, yet the cross-application capabilities are lacking. Within Google Documents you can't seem to include anything - Spreadsheets, Maps, or any of the things that make online documents different from Office. Drawings are the closest thing you kinda get, but even that seems like an experiment rather than integration. If Google wants to compete, they not only need to match Office, but beat it. Current unique features of Drive include cross-service scripting (through Google Apps Script) and integrated social collaboration tools (like chat and hangouts). However, some things are still notably missing like customizable document web publishing (see Wave Embeds) and embedded gadgets like polls.

To include these missing features of Google Drive, I'm specifically hoping Google merges Blogger's (tagging, location, and web publishing) capabilities into Google docs, and uses Google Documents as the only way to publish articles. They discussed rebranding Blogger and Picasa a while back, and with the updated UI and even more recent retirement of Blogger in Draft, I've be surprised if it wasn't soon. Blogger and Docs repeat a lot of functionality, and none of the seasonal cleanups have obliterated any major tools so far - so maybe they are saving it for something big like a developer conference.

Google Dis-Play (or what Google Learned from the Kindle)

There's been a lot of speculation about Google's upcoming tablet, and I think rumors are making it pretty clear that we'll have a cheaper Google Tablet running Android 4.1 and being relatively inexpensive. But I still don't think that's as important as what it's running. To that run end, I think it's worth noting that the best selling Android tablet was in fact the Kindle Fire. I don't think Google missed the lesson that having a simplified and focused user experience on a tablet is a good way to go. So to that end it's important to compare the Kindle Fire's UI to Google Play.

Android's more defined and
focused on Google products.

Google Play has sections for Music, Movies, Books and Apps much like the Kindle Fire (and the iPad), but it's worth pointing out that the Kindle Fire did a few things differently and with much success. Kindle offered a simplified interface - they had a media shelf to make it easy to get what you wanted quickly and easily. Kindle's main page was a storefront with a search button that searches Amazon's products first. The Kindle lastly sacrificed features like the camera to lower price point to appeal to a broader market.

Based on recent history it seems Google is making strides to match Kindle's success. News articles relevant to this include work on the "infinite scrolling" WebGL bookcase chrome experiment. As a Chrome experiment, the project's been untouched since last year, so maybe the work related to it is being applied elsewhere. Google Play replaced the Android Market to cover Movies, Music, Apps, Books and Devices, with Android icons available for each. Play's main page still looks a lot like Android market still. Lastly, the Nexus 7 and Android 4.1 set the rumor mill on fire. I suspect 4.1 provides more UI and cross-service improvements, although there is an impressive drought of information about this release.

As a result of these thoughts, I think Google's next tablet will have a more consumer-friendly "shelf" interface when initially purchased, similar to that of the Nook or Kindle. I also think there will be an option to exit out into the "file system" mode, and used more conventionally for current Android users.

Hanging out with Google TV

I think at this point it's safe to say that Google TV hasn't taken off in the real world. Although I do think adoption is quietly happening, it doesn't seem to be a product anyone is particularly excited about. I think Google has some real opportunities to change that though, especially with the introduction of Google+ hangouts.

Back in Google I/O 2011, Mike Cleron presented Google's "virtual camera operator" (18m in) which allowed a video camera to detect a person talking and focus on that speaker. It was a neat demo, but they didn't have Google+ at the time, so at the time its application was unclear. Now, if we imagine hangouts on a Google TV, this camera operator has greater appeal for a casual chat with friends or family off your television. So I think future Google TVs will come with a camera accessory. With that also comes the assumption a some sort of "leanback" mode to Google+, because if you have Hangouts through the TV, you want to be able to get to them - and start your own - easily. 

Chrome Emulation

My wild prediction for Chrome OS is that Google will begin selling or giving the operating system away on CDs or USBs for average users. Unofficial ISOs have been around for a while now, but that only has a niche market, and 3rd party builds don't necessarily imply the same official or secure qualities users trust. Offering CDs would allow installations on old desktops, or people that want to move off Windows but want a dead simple alternative. This wouldn't discourage the sale of Chromebooks or Chromeboxes, because their selling points are of compactness and/or long battery life.

Taking a page from Ubuntu, bootable USBs would be even better adoption technique. Since with Chrome OS everything you need is on the web, a bootable USB makes any computer your Google Chrome platform (* network setup required though ) Again, people are already doing this, but if Google produces and distributes these for free, it'd be a powerful marketing tool. Remember the AOL floppy disks? Same thing, except with Google and 4GB USB drives.

You can already make your own bootable USB drive with Chrome OS,
but imagine it coming in the mail instead.

For a wilder prediction, I also think with Chrome OS's new desktop-like functionality, a fascinating next step Chrome could take is to emulate its desktop within other operating systems (Like with Virtual PC for Windows, or Parallels for OS X). For example, opening Chrome in Windows could open up Chrome OS fullscreen, and take you out of the Windows experience altogether. I don't know if Google would see much value in this, but it's an interesting alternative.

Project Glass Crashing Through

It took Apple 6 months to get from the initial announcement of the first iPhone (9 January 2007, Wikipedia) to retail outlets (29 June 2007, Wikipedia). Project Glass was announced in a "prototype phase" in early April of this year. If we pretend Google's announcement was similar to Apple's, then a release date could be obtained in September of this year. This could go in line with the 722 demo units being requested just before I/O - so maybe Google will announce a product to sell before the holidays after all.


Though it'll probably be another year or two before it works like their promo video.

Pairing Google Wallet with Social Identity

With the rebranding of Google Checkout to Google Wallet late last year, I wondered what changes may've been in store. Google Play came out, but that wasn't really helping merchants. I've seen Google Wallet accepted in a few places in the D.C. area like Macy's and the Container Store, but accessibility has been difficult with only a handful of NFC-supporting phones on the market. So how would Google address this issue?


First thought is that you get some sort of thin credit-card-like device with NFC and some handshake that can transmit off of 3G (like the Kindle's Whispernet service). It works, but it's not great. So what's another approach? Maybe a one-time pad QR code that can be created for a financial transaction, but that still requires some knowledge and a smartphone, so again not so great. Google I/O offered a hint when it required to things for registration: financial information through Google Wallet and a real identity through Google+. With Google+ able to link a real identity to Google Wallet, Google has the building blocks of producing their own type of credit card.

Some people already made their own Google+ "identity cards."

With the supporting Android app Google is distributing for I/O 2012, the prominence of Google Wallet is seen in their event map. At first impression it hints cross-product integration between Wallet and Maps, but Android apps have been showing more of that. The Google I/O 2012 app posts events to Google Calendar for us, and the Google Maps app got Places recently added in as well.

G-Mobile

I believe it's only a matter of time until a technology company purchases a telecommunications company. Tech companies want to offer the best products they can, but it seems telecommunication companies don't have the infrastructure to support it. Last year it was reported that Steve Jobs wanted the iPhone to work on WiFi and dodge the phone carriers altogether, probably out of Apple's desire to have more control over distribution channels and their vertical stack. However, I think it this thought has greater appeal for addressing Google's problems working with many OEMs and carriers.

I think it'd be a brilliant, crazy idea if Google acquired T-Mobile. At the very least, I do think there's some quiet discussion about something going on between the two of them, and here are a few of the things that lead me to speculate:

• T-Mobile was first to Android
• T-Mobile's the only US carrier without the iPhone still.
• T-Mobile has been prominent in recent Google announcements, notably the Google Music announcement late last year.
• T-Mobile's Galaxy S III recent announcement that the release date is now split between the 21st and 27th.
• The San Francisco 3g network update that's been in the news recently.

At the least, I do expect the close relationship with T-Mobile and Google to continue, though I couldn't tell you to what end. But we'll see where things go.

Conclusion

Google is tackling more and more fields, and they're covering a lot of territory. In the end, my thoughts are only a drop in the bucket, but I am hopeful at least one or two things work their way into Google I/O this year (personally I'm hopeful my Chrome speculations have legs). In the end though, Google has a way of taking their influence and steering the industry toward a better place. Whatever Google has in store for us all this year, I hope they continue to take us down this road.